Making long-range planning work: the case of the US Army's 30-year strategic modernization plan

The extensive timespan of evolving assumptions about future adversaries, US military engagements, and technology inherent in the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy can overwhelm the management capacity of planners, and misdirect acquisition investments. Some military scholars have argued that long-range planning is futile due to the complexities of the global security environment. So how can the US Army manage the evolving assumptions inherent in its 30-year modernization strategy to ensure it remains a superior global force? This study will answer the above question by arguing that the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy, while emulative of a similar modernization approach in the threat-based planning environment of the Cold War, is viable if supported by a method and a tool that manage investments and planning assumptions.     

The contexts of strategy as a guide for defense planning in the Philippines

Efforts toward developing an independent and credible Philippine defense policy were revived when Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III was elected President of the Philippines in 2010. President Aquino renewed the military modernization program in 2012 and emphasized the necessity of a “minimum credible defense posture.” Given the modernization efforts of the government, this article aims to contribute to the development of the concept of minimum credible defense posture by exploring how theory contributes to defense planning. It argues that the contexts of strategy are useful in planning for national defense because these contexts can provide a conceptual framework for defense planners. It proceeds in three parts: the opening section reviews the literature on defense planning; the second surveys the context of developing strategies as discussed in the General Theory of Strategy; and the last provides a definition of minimum credible defense and applies the context of developing strategies to the case of the Philippines.     

驻城市部队营区训练场规划探析

在快速推进城镇化建设的背景下,驻城市部队营区训练场面临着场地缺乏拓展空间、训练存有安全隐患和受到地方活动干扰等困境。针对这一客观现实,提出了以下对策:协调训练场规划与城市规划;从用地规模、场地布局、功能整合等方面增强训练场规划的针对性;提高营区训练场规划的专业性。规划者应梳理城市与营区训练场发展的客观规律,使营区训练场发挥其应有的作用。     

多基准站相对定位算法及先验基线向量偏差影响分析

为提高单基准站短基线相对定位解算的可靠性,研究了多基准站约束的相对定位算法。将基准站间可提前测量的先验基线信息融入观测模型中,给出了多基准站相对定位的函数模型和随机模型,在此基础上推导了模糊度精度因子的解析表达式,揭示了基准站数量的增加对模糊度浮点解精度提升的作用;从理论上分析了基准站间先验基线信息中的偏差对模糊度解算的影响,分析表明,当先验基线各分量偏差的绝对值之和小于5 cm时,模糊度解算几乎不受影响;通过仿真和实测数据进行了验证。试验结果表明,增加基准站数量不仅能有效提升模糊度解算成功率和收敛速度,并且对先验基线信息中的偏差具有较好的抑制作用,当基线各分量偏差均增加到4 cm时,实测数据模糊度解算成功率仍能达到92%以上。研究结论为特殊场景下多基准站间的快速非精确标定提供了理论依据。     

地心甚高轨道星座构形协同捕获控制策略

针对地心甚高轨道星座构形协同捕获控制问题,基于虚拟编队方法设计了协同捕获控制策略,采用三脉冲燃耗最优轨迹规划算法对构形捕获轨迹进行协同规划;并且结合自适应全程积分滑模控制器对卫星各自转移轨迹进行跟踪控制。以10万km轨道高度的三星星座构形捕获为例进行仿真验证,仿真结果表明:该策略可以有效应用于地心甚高轨道星座构形捕获控制,能够在燃耗较少的情况下使星座中卫星同时到达各自的标称位置,同时具有较高的精度。     

无线传感器网络动态汇聚节点调度算法研究

移动汇聚节点调度是传感器网络中一个新的研究热点.通过建立一个普适的多目标优化模型,提出了贴近实际的汇聚节点循环路径规划模型,采用以连续时间离散化为理论基础的时域-空域转化方法,将时域中的优化模型无损地转至空域中,从而大大减少了所涉及的变量数量,降低了求解的复杂度.通过实验可以看出,调度移动汇聚节点可以有效扩展网络的生命周期.     

多任务时间规划冲突检测方法

摘要：针对多任务的时间规划问题,基于Simple Temporal Networks(STN)时态表示模型和时态推理方法,提出了一种时间冲突检测的智能方法,并对该方法给予了数学证明。实验表明,该方法能够检测出基于STN表示的作战方案的时间冲突,并对任务时间规划提供参考范围,可有效辅助指挥员快速制定作战方案的时间规划。     

Route optimization for multiple searchers

We consider a discrete time‐and‐space route‐optimization problem across a finite time horizon in which multiple searchers seek to detect one or more probabilistically moving targets. This article formulates a novel convex mixed‐integer nonlinear program for this problem that generalizes earlier models to situations with multiple targets, searcher deconfliction, and target‐ and location‐dependent search effectiveness. We present two solution approaches, one based on the cutting‐plane method and the other on linearization. These approaches result in the first practical exact algorithms for solving this important problem, which arises broadly in military, rescue, law enforcement, and border patrol operations. The cutting‐plane approach solves many realistically sized problem instances in a few minutes, while existing branch‐and‐bound algorithms fail. A specialized cut improves solution time by 50[percnt] in difficult problem instances. The approach based on linearization, which is applicable in important special cases, may further reduce solution time with one or two orders of magnitude. The solution time for the cutting‐plane approach tends to remain constant as the number of searchers grows. In part, then, we overcome the difficulty that earlier solution methods have with many searchers. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

巡航导弹航迹规划中雷达探测盲区的快速构造算法

现代防空系统对巡航导弹的低空飞行和突防造成极大的威胁,利用防空系统中预警雷达的探测盲区进行隐蔽飞行是提高巡航导弹生存能力的重要手段,在此雷达探测盲区的快速构造算法是关键。说明了什么是雷达探测盲区,分析了影响雷达探测盲区的三个主要因素,并就对巡航导弹影响最大的雷达地形遮蔽盲区构造了基于极坐标的快速算法,并用一个地形实例验证了该方法的有效性。     

Expansion planning for waste‐to‐energy systems using waste forecast prediction sets

We consider an expansion planning problem for Waste‐to‐Energy (WtE) systems facing uncertainty in future waste supplies. The WtE expansion plans are regarded as strategic, long term decisions, while the waste distribution and treatment are medium to short term operational decisions which can adapt to the actual waste collected. We propose a prediction set uncertainty model which integrates a set of waste generation forecasts and is constructed based on user‐specified levels of forecasting errors. Next, we use the prediction sets for WtE expansion scenario analysis. More specifically, for a given WtE expansion plan, the guaranteed net present value (NPV) is evaluated by computing an extreme value forecast trajectory of future waste generation from the prediction set that minimizes the maximum NPV of the WtE project. This problem is essentially a multiple stage min‐max dynamic optimization problem. By exploiting the structure of the WtE problem, we show this is equivalent to a simpler min‐max optimization problem, which can be further transformed into a single mixed‐integer linear program. Furthermore, we extend the model to optimize the guaranteed NPV by searching over the set of all feasible expansion scenarios, and show that this can be solved by an exact cutting plane approach. We also propose a heuristic based on a constant proportion distribution rule for the WtE expansion optimization model, which reduces the problem into a moderate size mixed‐integer program. Finally, our computational studies demonstrate that our proposed expansion model solutions are very stable and competitive in performance compared to scenario tree approaches. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 47–70, 2016